Forecasting & Sensitivity Analysis of the Decay of Viral Load in HCV Infection during Treatment by using Mathematical Tools and Simulation.

Abstract

The present paper gives a brief description of study of decay of viral load in HCV infection during treatment of patients through various mathematical tools. In the study clinical data of few patients have been taken. The basic model of HCV infection adapted by Neumann et al has been taken in to account and explained to understand the decay or flow of viral load. For eight consecutive weeks data of viral load has been taken which is based on clinical data. Then, by using RStudio simulation (R-language) viral load is forecasted further for six more weeks. The forecasted viral load totally resembles with viral load through clinical data established by using Origin Lab. The sensitivity analysis of study of viral load of HCV during treatment for fourteen weeks shows specific pattern which will help in the treatment of Hepatitis C infected patients. In this study immunity of a human body is excluded.